Estimated reading time: 11 minute(s)
Kehinde Ogunyale & Michael Babatunde
Today, March 18, 2023, twenty-eight out of 36 states in Nigeria would be going to polls to vote candidates for governorship and state assembly seats.
Out of these 28 states, 11 governors are seeking reelection to second term in office.
Ogun state governor, Dapo Abiodun is one of those seeking second term.
Abiodun is set to contend with 13 other governorship candidates from different political parties aspiring for the seat.
Meanwhile, recent development has seen some of these political parties adopting and endorsing the candidates of the major contending party.
In what seem like separating the men from the boys in the Ogun Guber race, three political parties on the forefront are Dapo Abiodun of All Progressive Congress (APC) and incumbent governor, Ladi Adebutu of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Biyi Otegbeye of Africa Democratic Congress (ADC).
Ogun state has a total of 2.6 million registered voters. However, only 2.2 million of them have collected their Permanent Voters Card with about 410,281 PVCs uncollected.
It is expected that this 2.2 million voter would determine if Abiodun returns as the governor or be replaced by another.
If Abiodun is replaced, he would be the second governor in Ogun state who would not be re-elected into a second term after Olusegun Osoba in 2003.
Abiodun is contending with Adebutu for votes in Iperu, Remo and Ogun East, where they both come from. The duo have their strength in the region with other supporters spread across the state.
Abiodun faces a tough huddle as a faction of electorate opine that the governor hasn’t done enough in his first term to deserve reelection.
He would have relied on the political strength of Senator-elect, Gbenga Daniel. The former governor however has been silent. Sources from his camp alleged that he was crossed at Abiodun for not supporting his senatorial bid.
The odds are not totally in favour of Adebutu but for factors such as the strength of his deputy, Adekunle Akinlade who once contested for governorship seat and also the reconciliation with Segun Showunmi, who vied for the PDP ticket with Adebutu.
Ogun Central looks like the battle ground for all candidates as there is no strong aspiration from the region. However, Ogun Central remains a stronghold for former governor Senator Ibikunle Amosun. Amosun had declared support for Otegbeye of the ADC who is from Ogun West.
Amosun might deliver a chunk of votes for Otegbeye in Ogun Central. Otegbeye is expected to take hold of votes from his region, Ogun West.
There is another Adeyemi of the Action Alliance who seem to have caught attention with his CV and public discuss.
The permutations continue as alliances and structure collapse were recorded. While some were legit, other were seen as some money spree toasts.
Outcome of previous elections
In 2019, Abiodun contended with 4 major political parties and became the governor by securing 35.49 per cent of the vote. It was barely 4% higher than the runner-up, Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), who is now the deputy governorship candidate of the PDP for the 2023 elections.
This is the lowest recorded so far since 1999.
Data shows that winners of Ogun state guber polls had always secured over 50 per cent of the votes. Now having two major contenders for this election, he stands a slight chance of winning if the same event repeats itself.
The stiff competition may have a winner emerge with lowest of votes percentage compared to previous election amidst low turnout of voters.
Taking a cue from the just concluded presidential election, Ogun Central and Ogun West senatorial districts had more voters involved in the election. Meanwhile, of the 2.2 million people with their PVC, only 611,448 people voted in the election.
Tomorrow, the die will be cast, the coin will be tossed; what side will it be, voters, who are less than 40% of the entire state population, will decided.
Estimated reading time: 1 minute(s)
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