Aishah Waliyullah
Nigeria may record an improvement in its current account balance if global crude oil prices remain elevated, according to a new report by Bloomberg Economics.
The report said Nigeria, Angola and Ghana are the only sub-Saharan African economies likely to benefit from the recent surge in oil prices triggered by the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
According to the analysis released on Thursday, higher oil prices could strengthen the external balances of the three oil-producing countries, while many other African economies may experience economic strain.
Mhango, explained that if crude oil prices stabilise around $85 per barrel, the current account balances of Nigeria, Angola and Ghana are expected to improve.
She warned, however, that most other African economies could face renewed economic pressure due to higher import costs.
Mhango said, “For most African economies, higher oil prices mean weaker currencies and renewed inflationary pressure, which could put rate hikes back on the table.”
The report noted that rising fuel prices could significantly worsen economic conditions in several countries that rely heavily on imported petroleum products.
It projected that South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised economy, may see its current account deficit widen by about one per cent of its Gross Domestic Product due to higher energy costs.
Bloomberg Economics added that Angola could record the biggest improvement, with its current account balance projected to increase by as much as 3.3 per cent of GDP if the current price levels are sustained.
Nigeria is also expected to gain from higher crude oil revenues as well as the export of refined petroleum products, especially with the operations of the Dangote refinery.
The report noted that Nigerian billionaire and industrialist, Aliko Dangote, recently indicated that more petroleum products from his 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery could be exported to Europe if market conditions remain favourable.
Meanwhile, the publication warned that some countries could face fuel supply pressures as major exporters such as India and Oman — two key suppliers to South Africa — may reduce exports amid tightening global supply.
Global oil prices have risen sharply in recent days, with Brent crude climbing to $85 per barrel on March 3, up from $72 recorded on February 28, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Analysts say the development could have mixed economic consequences for Africa, benefiting oil exporters while worsening inflationary pressures in import-dependent economies.
'
'Do you want to share a story with us? Do you want to advertise with us? Do you need publicity for a product, service, or event? Contact us on WhatsApp +2348183319097 Email: platformtimes@gmail.com
We are committed to impactful investigative journalism for human interest and social justice. Your donation will help us tell more stories. Kindly donate any amount HERE
