Agriculture: Still scratching the surface

Nigeria’s agriculture sector has taken a significant hit since the federal government announced the termination of fuel subsidies in May 2023. Rising transportation and production costs have driven up the prices of essential agro-inputs, burdening smallholder farmers and threatening food security nationwide.

When the subsidy removal was announced, farmers were already preparing their fields for the wet season. The timing was disruptive, with production costs for most crops rising by nearly 300 per cent. Within weeks, fertiliser prices—crucial for crop productivity—soared from N16,000–N24,000 to between N39,000 and N62,000 in several regions.

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Production became increasingly difficult for smallholder irrigation farmers who use petrol to pump water to their fields. Many were forced to reduce their farm sizes due to the high cost of fuel and other inputs.

Consequently, food became unaffordable for many households. Transportation and production expenses inflated market prices, compounding Nigeria’s long-standing challenges in food affordability and availability.

Insecurity further worsened the situation. In many rural communities across northern Nigeria—considered the country’s agricultural heartland—banditry, farmer-herder clashes, and other violent conflicts have severely hampered farming activities.

Climate unpredictability also emerged as a compounding factor. Across the six agro-ecological zones, erratic rainfall, droughts, and extreme temperatures disrupted planting cycles and reduced yields.

Despite the Tinubu administration’s declaration of a state of emergency on agriculture and the rollout of several initiatives, food inflation remains a persistent concern.

Tinubu’s agricultural programmes

One of the administration’s key interventions is the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro Pocket (NAGS-AP), aimed at building smallholder farmers’ resilience to produce more food.

To implement the NAGS-AP, the federal government secured a $134 million (about N118.6 billion) loan from the African Development Bank (AfDB) in November 2024. The loan is intended to support five million farmers and promote the cultivation of key crops, including cassava, sorghum, wheat, rice and maize, in order to boost food production and ease the pressure of rising agricultural commodity prices.

In the livestock sector, the federal government launched the $546 million Livestock Productivity and Resilience Support (L-PRES) project to enhance cattle productivity, commercialisation and sector-wide resilience.

Additionally, President Tinubu established the Ministry of Livestock Development to address long-standing neglect in the sector.

According to the president, the ministry is intended to “open up new opportunities that will benefit farmers, herders, processors, and distributors in the livestock farming value chain.”

To curb rising food prices, Tinubu also approved a 150-day import waiver on husked brown rice, maize, wheat, sorghum, and other essential food items. Though the waiver was originally meant to last 150 days, it remained in effect longer, causing a marginal reduction in local prices.

However, farmers said the move came at their expense. Prices fell below production costs, leading to losses that could discourage many from returning to their farms this season.

In the area of mechanisation, the federal government is executing a $1 billion agricultural mechanisation programme to scale up food production nationwide. While 255 tractors have so far been delivered, deals have been signed with John Deere and other manufacturers for the annual supply of 2,000 tractors.

Farmers’ assessment of the programmes

Architect Kabiru Ibrahim, national president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), reacting to whether food production had increased under Tinubu’s leadership, said: “There is a surge in interest from new entrants in farming, and ordinarily we should see an increasing availability of food, but due to many inhibitors like insecurity, climate change, and low mechanisation, we are still experiencing gaps that sometimes necessitate windows of import, such as what we had between July and December 2024.”

“We hope things will change shortly because of the several windows of support and the increased effort in the fight against insecurity,” he added.

On whether the government interventions are effectively tackling food inflation, the AFAN president said the country is “seeing some marginal reduction in the rate of inflation due to the tariff-free import window we had, and we hope this will be sustained through the lean period of July to August.”

Architect Kabiru, however, expressed greater concern over insecurity, describing it as “a very big threat factor to the attainment of food security in Nigeria”, adding that unless it is addressed, “things might continue to be difficult.”

Michael Adedotun Oke, an agricultural expert and project facilitator at Talent Upgrade Global Concept, Gwagwalada, FCT, said the rising cost of food had become a significant burden for households, largely due to reduced agricultural output and the challenges facing those who still brave the fields.

“Currently, only a fraction of Nigeria’s vast agricultural potential is being realised. The environment for food production is far from conducive, marked by significant hurdles. A major deterrent remains pervasive security challenges, with farmers frequently facing threats that disrupt their operations and endanger their lives. These security concerns, if not proactively addressed, will continue to stifle investment and enthusiasm for farming.

“This climate of insecurity, coupled with other systemic issues, has led to a noticeable decline in active participation in production. Those who do engage often face short production cycles and insufficient support, undermining efforts to meet the demands of a growing population,” Mr Oke said.

He advised the government to re-evaluate its commitment and “popularise” the agricultural sector by developing robust value chains that extend beyond primary production to processing and marketing — thereby adding value and generating more income opportunities for farmers.

He said the federal government must significantly increase funding to agriculture, with a focus on critical production factors. These include accessible credit, quality seeds, fertilisers, and modern equipment.

The expert also urged the government to implement urgent measures to create a safe and enabling environment for farmers to operate without fear — addressing insecurity directly and ensuring that farmland is protected.

Musa Alhaji Danladi, a seasoned farmer from Kura Local Government Area of Kano State, opined that “the Tinubu administration came in with bold promises, especially with the declaration of a state of emergency on food security. But over a year later, the reality on the ground tells a different story. While fertiliser and input distribution have improved slightly, the cost of production has skyrocketed, and many smallholder farmers in Kano are still struggling to break even.

“Insecurity may not be rampant across Kano, except around the Falgore axis, but the national picture affects market access. Farmers from neighbouring states like Kaduna or Zamfara find it difficult to transport food freely due to banditry, and this indirectly drives prices up here in Kano too.”

Fatima Sale, a doctoral student of agriculture, told Daily Trust that “food production in Nigeria has not significantly increased to match population growth. Despite CBN’s Anchor Borrowers’ Programme and renewed efforts under Tinubu’s administration, there is still a huge gap in mechanisation, financing, and marketing.”

“Climate change is also playing a silent but deadly role. Rainfall patterns are erratic, and dry-season farming is constrained by limited access to irrigation facilities. Government interventions are fragmented and reactive. What’s missing is a coordinated and transparent policy that supports smallholders sustainably,” she said.

Another agricultural expert, Teryima Iorlamen, Seed Systems Principal Investigator at Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University (JOSTUM), formerly Federal University of Agriculture, Makurdi (FUAM), called on the government to urgently tackle insecurity and provide direct support to farmers to enhance food production and reduce reliance on imports.

He said persistent attacks in rural farming communities have severely disrupted agricultural activity and threatened national food security.

“If the producers of food are being killed, there will definitely be food shortages. With insecurity on the rise in farming areas, it becomes impossible to feed the growing population. This forces us to rely on food imports, which increases demand over supply and causes prices to spike,” he said.

Iorlamen also highlighted the importance of deploying extension agents to educate farmers on climate-resilient crop varieties, noting that “with the changing climate, farmers need access to improved seeds that can thrive. For example, JOSTUM has developed climate-smart cowpea varieties that mature within 60 to 75 days, but many farmers are unaware of these breakthroughs due to a lack of extension services.”

He added that insecurity also affects livestock: “When animals are lost to violence, it drives up meat prices. The government must stop politicising insecurity and instead develop practical policies to address the situation.”

Like others, Tanko Bobbo Andami, chairman of the Rice Farmers Association, said high input costs make farming difficult for many smallholders who are the backbone of food security.

He said irrigation farmers, for example, purchase fertilisers, water-pumping engines, chemicals and tractor services at exorbitant prices without any government subsidy.

He criticised the large capital allocations the government makes annually for food production, saying practical farmers seldom benefit.

He said in recent years, farmers had achieved impressive yields — especially in paddy rice, maize, cassava, soya beans, and sesame seeds — largely through their own investments and efforts.

“Such interventions do not benefit practical farmers. If the government truly wants to support us, it should embark on land preparation and provide improved seeds directly. That would have a tangible impact on food production in this country,” he said.

Luka Osagie, a farmer in Edo State, said food production had not increased significantly, and the country still relies heavily on food imports.

He attributed this to government “politics”, where much of the claimed intervention goes to individuals who are not real farmers.

“So for now, we still rely on importation because we are not producing much, and you can’t do away with imports when your production is limited.

“The interventions are not effective because they’re not reaching real farmers, and that’s why they haven’t curbed food inflation,” he said.

Luka, who grows yams, noted that insecurity is the greatest obstacle to farming in his community.

“In my community, nobody goes to the farm anymore because of insecurity and kidnapping. Herders have taken over the forests where we used to farm. Food security is impossible unless farmers can return to their land,” he said.

Imaghodor Donaldtus, another farmer, said food production could have improved, but farmers are discouraged by insecurity and price gluts, which undermine productivity.

“If we don’t increase production, we will keep relying on imports,” he warned.

He echoed that the government’s interventions are not effective, as many farmers — rice, cassava, beans, and yams — are still crying out for support.

He said the government had failed to open up land for cultivation, which is what farmers need most, as they cannot afford the cost of clearing land.

Other experts said the government has not invested enough in irrigation infrastructure to support multiple planting seasons.

David Ayuba, an extension expert, said the government has failed to recognise irrigation as a critical tool for combating climate change and improving food supply.

“Check countries that are food-sufficient — they rely on irrigation. With irrigation, you don’t worry as much about climate because you’re not depending solely on the rains.

“Climate change is the biggest issue now. Some areas that used to begin planting in May haven’t even started. With irrigation, some would already be harvesting,” he said.

For many farmers and experts, no meaningful progress in food supply will be possible until insecurity is addressed, access to finance is improved, input costs are lowered, irrigation production is expanded, and climate-resilient farming is fully supported.

Additional reports by: Hope Abah (Makurdi), Magaji Isa Hunkuyi (Jalingo), Usman A. Bello (Benin) & Salim Umar Ibrahim (Kano)