Dig not too deep a pit of mischief

Those who grew up reading late Dr Abubakar Imam’s book—Magana Jari Ce—will relate to one of the book’s chapters, “If you are going to dig a pit of mischief, dig it shallow.” The reason behind this caution is that one might fall into the pit they just dug.

The mischief I refer to is from Tinubu’s June 12 speech, where he defended the accusation of favouring a one-party system by causing crises in the opposition parties. He said, “It is, indeed, a pleasure to witness you in such disarray. For me, I would say try your best to put your house in order. I will not help you do so.”

The National Assembly cheered him to a standing ovation. The cameras caught Senator Saraki unamused. This was not unexpected. His silence was symbolic—he is, after all, a leading voice in the opposition and chairs the PDP’s reconciliation committee.

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But the opposition, despite its internal troubles, is not taking the president’s poke lightly. The PDP has accused the APC of deploying state power, security agencies, and monetary inducements to destabilise its ranks. The party blames the defections of its members due to pressure from the APC. They pre-empt further damage by holding an early convention in August.

The Labour Party also fingers the APC in its leadership crisis between Abure and Nenadi, with Apapa acting as a willing disruptor. The NNPP has made similar claims, especially in Kano, accusing the ruling party of exploiting internal fractures for gain.

As fate would have it, we witnessed another disarray on Sunday at the APC meeting in Gombe. Like in other geopolitical zones, the party chairman, Ganduje and vice chairman, Salihu, endorsed Tinubu for a second term but ignored Vice President Shettima. But unlike in other zones, North East is the home zone of the Vice President. And the Governor of Borno, Zulum, did not take it lightly.

The endorsement event turned into a massive chaos to the point where the party leaders, Ganduje and Salihu, were forced to leave under tight security. The AIT TV station had a caption saying, “APC North East meeting ends in chaos over Tinubu-Shettima endorsement”.

Clearly, this is the occasion that exposes the growing suspicion that Tinubu may sideline Shettima ahead of 2027. But the North East, Shettima’s stronghold and home to the defunct ANPP bloc, will not take such a move lightly. Instead of consolidating the party, the APC leadership looks to be creating more crises for itself. This is not what seasoned political strategists do.

Yes, APC has a lot of troubled members. Trouble also brews in the South West. Aregbesola’s faction has drawn the line. Likewise, Fayemi and Fashola are not without their complaints. These are three former governors from the South West who have strong reservations about Tinubu’s 24 months of governance. And they have a decent amount of backing. Add to that the barely concealed cold war between Lagos Governor Sanwo-Olu and the president, despite public denials and the picture grows darker.

Further afield, Amaechi is not hiding his discontent. A recent colloquium in his honour showed just how much support he retains across regions. And though his rhetoric can be grand, one is left to wish his heart matched the size of his speech.

Up North, the CPC faction remains disgruntled. The Tinubu government’s repeated attempts to distance itself from the Buhari era have alienated many of the former president’s loyalists. The so-called “Buhari boys” feel pushed aside, and their silence grows heavy. As things stand, they are looking for new alliances. Of course, one cannot blame anyone but the Tinubu administration for creating this chaos.

This internal strife is not new. In February, the APC held its stakeholders’ meeting inside the Villa—because the party secretariat was not tenable. Notable figures stayed away. That was after only 20 months in office.

One might think the President’s advisers would push for consolidation following the general rule: when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. But instead, they have taken to campaigning for 2027. And in doing so, they have begun to alienate key blocs—including Shettima’s.

But this is what they often do whenever they are faced with pressure; instead of addressing it, they run away from it. Just as the pressure of governance caught up with them, they decided to end it and turned to campaigning for 2027. History shows that this will not bode well for them.

For those fortunate enough, politics provides an opportunity to learn something new every day. If Tinubu is one of us, he will now understand that in politics, mockery is never one-way traffic. Those he ridicules have found a cause to return the favour. And as things stand, it is the APC—not the opposition—that may collapse first. After all, they came from a merger of political parties.

In the end, Tinubu may come to understand what Magana Jari Ce—“Wisdom is an Asset”—has long taught: the pit dug for others may well become one’s own. And if nothing changes, it is the APC that risks falling the deepest.

At this rate, the fantasy of the one-party system is fast becoming an illusion. The cracks within the APC are widening as 2027 approaches. Instead of absorbing the opposition, the ruling party is now becoming dysfunctional. If anything, we can now claim that our democracy is pushing towards a state of multiparty chaos. Thanks to the driving forces of competing interests, bruised egos, and regional mistrust, all unfolding under a Muslim-Muslim presidency.