By Remmy Hazzan
The 2026 Osun State governorship election stands out as a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s recent democratic journey. Senator Nurudeen Jackson Ademola Adeleke triumphed over a contender who mobilised all visible and “invisble” forces, and who had the full backing of the powerful All Progressives Congress bigwigs. Adeleke secured 511,067 votes, while the APC Candidate garnered 444,815 votes, giving Adeleke a winning margin of 66,252 votes. But beyond the numbers, the real takeaway is that a determined electorate can shift political dynamics and challenge even the most entrenched political establishments. What made the Osun election particularly striking was the intense political climate surrounding it. The lead-up was rife with allegations of vote buying, intimidation, and violence, casting a shadow over the electoral process. Concerns about the sway of money and political clout were rampant. Yet, when the dust settled and the votes were tallied, the people had made their voices heard. While government machinery and party organizations can exert influence, they ultimately cannot override the will of the voters.
This experience holds valuable lessons for Ogun State as it gears up for the 2027 governorship election. Winning an election isn’t just about being part of a powerful party, having influential backers, or having access to vast financial resources. True victory comes when these advantages translate into genuine public support, effective mobilization, and actual votes at the polls. This is where the candidacy of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, affectionately known as Yayi, becomes particularly noteworthy. However, it’s crucial to recognize that Ogun’s political landscape is quite different from Osun’s. It would be a mistake to assume that the dynamics in Osun will automatically play out in Ogun. Ogun has its own unique political history, demographic makeup, regional interests, traditions, and electoral strategies. Yet, one feature of the state makes the coming contest particularly interesting: the 2023 governorship election was considerably closer than the final margin might suggest. Governor Dapo Abiodun secured 276,298 votes, while the PDP candidate, Ladi Adebutu, obtained 262,383 votes. The difference was only 13,915 votes.
That slim margin is quite telling in the political landscape. It shows us that Ogun isn’t just a safe bet for elections; it’s a battleground where even slight changes in voter sentiment, turnout, and alliances can really shake things up. This is exactly why we should pay close attention to Yayi’s current political stance. He’s stepping into the race with several advantages that positions him as a top contender for the state’s highest office. One of his most immediate advantages is how he became the APC’s governorship candidate. Instead of coming out of a tough and potentially divisive primary, Yayi was chosen as the party’s consensus candidate after discussions among key players. Reports suggest that notable figures in the Ogun APC, like former governors Olusegun Osoba, Gbenga Daniel, and Ibikunle Amosun, were involved in these important talks. This is crucial because internal party strife can be one of the biggest hurdles a candidate faces leading up to an election. Though some difficultninterests in Ogun State APC are still being managed, they are however not out of control.
A heated primary often leaves behind disappointed candidates, rival factions, and lingering resentments. On the other hand, a consensus choice, when genuinely embraced by the main stakeholders, allows the party to rally around one candidate early on. Yayi, therefore, has something that many candidates lack: ample time to create a cohesive campaign strategy instead of wasting months battling it out internally. As this consensus leads to real reconciliation and teamwork, it could turn into one of his biggest electoral advantages. There’s also a deeper political angle to Yayi’s candidacy. Since Ogun State was established in 1976, Ogun West has yet to produce a governor. This historical fact continues to play a significant role in the political conversations within the state. While the Nigerian Constitution does not establish a legal zoning arrangement for governorship, Nigerian politics has repeatedly demonstrated that informal arrangements concerning equity, inclusion and rotation can become extremely powerful determinants of political behaviour.
Yayi’s rise on the political scene offers Ogun West a candidate who can rally support for a more inclusive political landscape. His candidacy isn’t just about personal ambition; it taps into a wider feeling that one of the state’s key political regions deserves a shot at the governorship. If approached thoughtfully, this argument could evolve into a strong element of a statewide coalition rather than just a localized campaign. However, what truly sets Yayi apart isn’t just his background; it’s his track record. He’s not a newcomer trying to land his first significant public role. His political path has taken him through the Lagos State House of Assembly, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. This means he enters the race for governor with a wealth of legislative and political experience built up over many years.
This experience is crucial because running a state involves much more than just winning an election. A governor needs to grasp legislation, public finance, budgeting, intergovernmental relations, policy development, and the workings of government. Yayi’s time in the National Assembly has given him insight into all these areas. Plus, his current position as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations places him at the heart of one of the most vital aspects of national governance. We shouldn’t overlook the importance of that experience. Government ultimately runs on resources. Every ambitious initiative, be it in education, healthcare, infrastructure, agriculture, housing, employment, or social programs, has to be reflected in a budget. Someone who has spent years navigating the legislative landscape and engaging with national budget systems has the institutional knowledge that can be incredibly valuable when it comes to managing state affairs.
Yayi brings another significant edge to the table: his national political connections. His years spent in the National Assembly have allowed him to forge relationships throughout the federal political landscape, including ministries, departments, agencies, and with political leaders nationwide. In Nigeria’s federal system, effective state development often hinges on strong collaboration with the Federal Government. Whether it’s about roads, federal infrastructure, industrial growth, security, agriculture, transportation, or promoting investments, state and federal authorities need to work hand in hand. Ogun State stands to gain immensely from this kind of connectivity. With its close proximity to Lagos, a robust industrial base, rich agricultural potential, growing urban centers, and key transportation routes, it ranks as one of Nigeria’s most economically vital states. Therefore, the governor of Ogun must be more than just a local figure; he needs to strategically position the state within the national economic framework and attract investments, infrastructure, and partnerships.
Another significant advantage for Yayi is the chance to build a coalition that goes beyond Ogun West. No candidate can realistically secure victory in Ogun State by focusing solely on one senatorial district. The political dynamics of the state require a comprehensive strategy that encompasses Ogun East, Ogun Central, and Ogun West. It also needs to consider the varied interests of the Egba, Ijebu, Remo, Yewa, and Awori communities, along with workers, traders, farmers, professionals, youths, women, and the business sector. This is where Yayi’s candidacy as a consensus candidate could prove to be a game-changer. His nomination allows him to approach the election not just as the representative of a single faction, senatorial district, or ethnic group, but as the candidate of a wide-ranging political coalition. His biggest challenge will be to persuade the people of Ogun that his goal isn’t just to take up residence in the Government House, but to foster an inclusive administration.
His solid track record of engaging with his constituents and his humanitarian efforts give him a unique kind of political leverage. People often judge politicians not just by their speeches but by real-life interactions with them. When citizens experience benefits like empowerment, educational support, infrastructure improvements, or other forms of assistance, those positive encounters can shape their views on political figures. However, these interventions shine brightest when they’re seen as part of a genuine commitment to service rather than mere tools for winning votes. One of the strongest points in Yayi’s favor is that his political journey has allowed him to showcase both his legislative skills and his connection with the community. This combination is crucial. A politician might have extensive legislative experience but be out of touch with everyday citizens. Conversely, someone might be beloved by grassroots supporters but lack the necessary institutional know-how to navigate a complex government. Yayi’s profile seems to offer a balance of both worlds.
That said, being popular alone won’t secure an election victory. Nigeria’s electoral history has shown time and again that social media fame, public cheers, and enthusiastic crowds don’t always translate into actual votes. The real test lies in turning that goodwill into organized voter mobilization, effective management at polling units, well-trained agents, voter education, turnout, and smooth coordination on election day. This is why the time leading up to the election is so critical. Yayi’s team needs to establish a robust electoral framework that can convert his popularity into tangible votes. Every ward, every local government area, and ultimately every polling unit is vital. A candidate might be well-liked across the state, but if that support isn’t strategically organized on Election Day, they could still face defeat. The 2023 Ogun election serves as a crucial reminder not to take things for granted. The close race between the top two candidates highlighted just how competitive the political scene is in the state. The legal battles that followed the election only emphasized the fierce nature of this political contest. Regardless of how one views those legal proceedings, the key takeaway is clear: elections in Ogun are far from a foregone conclusion. Yayi’s rise to consensus candidate is a promising opportunity, but it doesn’t guarantee victory. The APC needs to turn the goodwill surrounding his candidacy into real unity. It’s essential to fully engage former aspirants and their supporters in the campaign. Each senatorial district should feel represented, and local political figures must find their place in the new framework. Most importantly, Yayi must show that his campaign is focused on Ogun and not just on himself.
We also need to pay attention to the generational aspect of this election. Ogun has a vibrant youth population whose priorities differ significantly from those of the traditional political elite. They’re looking for jobs, entrepreneurial opportunities, tech advancements, affordable education, skills training, security, better transportation, and chances to lead fulfilling lives. If Yayi’s campaign only echoes the language of conventional politics, it risks alienating a large segment of the electorate. His legislative background can lay the groundwork for a more ambitious policy dialogue. Rather than making vague promises, he should clearly outline what his administration plans to achieve, how it will be funded, which institutions will carry it out, and how citizens can track its success. This clarity could be crucial in an election where voters are increasingly focused on the tangible impacts of political leadership. The bigger picture here is all about capacity. Ogun isn’t just looking for another politician who can snag an election win. What it truly needs is a governor who can navigate a complex and fast-growing urban economy, attract investments, enhance infrastructure, support agriculture, create job opportunities, and foster positive relationships with both the Federal Government and the private sector. This is where Yayi really stands out. His political experience, legislative know-how, national connections, community involvement, and current standing all come together to give him a solid base for a serious gubernatorial campaign. While these qualities don’t guarantee a win, they certainly set him apart from candidates whose political journey starts and ends with the race for governor.
Looking at the Osun example is valuable not because Ogun is the same as Osun, but because it serves as a reminder to political players that the voters hold the ultimate power. In Osun, an electorate that many thought could be easily swayed by political machinery proved them wrong. Similarly, the voters in Ogun will have the final say in 2027. Any serious candidate must work to earn that decision rather than just assume it will go their way. For Yayi, the road to victory is clear, even if it won’t be a walk in the park. He needs to unify the APC, mend any internal rifts, strengthen his ties with Ogun West, build connections in Ogun Central and Ogun East, broaden his appeal to young people and professionals, lay out a credible development plan, and create a well-organized statewide electoral team.
He needs to be careful not to let the strength of his political position lead to complacency. While building consensus is important, it can’t replace the need for active campaigning. Popularity has its perks, but it won’t mobilize people on its own. Political connections matter, yet they can’t substitute for the trust of the public. And no matter the enormity of resources available, it won’t replace the crucial willingness of citizens to vote for him. The real chance for Yayi lies in turning his political advantages into a meaningful social contract with the people of Ogun State. He should convey that his candidacy stands for experience without stagnation, inclusion without division, political ties without elitism, and development without empty promises.
There’s also a significant symbolic aspect to his candidacy. For many in Ogun West, having a Yewa candidate signifies the chance to break through a historical barrier. However, for those outside Ogun West, this ambition must come with the assurance that his administration will represent the entire state. The key message should be “Ogun West’s opportunity” while avoiding the perception of it being “Ogun West’s government.” That distinction could be crucial. Winning the governorship of Ogun can’t rely solely on sectional sentiment; it demands a wide-ranging alliance of interests. Yayi’s strongest political argument isn’t just that he hails from Ogun West, but that his identity can be the foundation for a broader coalition across Ogun.
At the end of the day, no serious analyst can confidently call an election before the votes are actually cast and counted. What can be said, however, is that Yayi seems to be stepping into the 2027 Ogun governorship race with a solid set of advantages: a consensus nomination from the ruling party, a wealth of legislative experience, strong national political ties, a compelling narrative from Ogun West, reported grassroots efforts, and the chance to forge a statewide coalition. If Yayi can turn these advantages into an inclusive campaign, a credible manifesto, a well-organized team, and genuine voter engagement, he won’t just be a participant in the Ogun governorship race; he’ll be entering it with significant strategic strength. The Osun experience teaches us that political machinery can’t replace the will of the electorate. Ogun’s own history shows that successful elections are built on coalitions. Yayi’s current positioning indicates that, if managed well, he has many of the key ingredients needed to build that coalition.
Ultimately, in a democracy, the final say should rest not with political heavyweights, party leaders, campaign financiers, or pundits, but with the people of Ogun State. They will decide whether the experience, acceptance, regional fairness, legislative background, and political connections associated with Solomon Olamilekan Adeola can translate into a mandate to govern Ogun. But from a purely political standpoint, Yayi has every reason to approach the 2027 race with confidence—and he must recognize that this opportunity needs to be transformed into actual votes.
ESV Rt Hon Remmy Hazzan, PhD, FNIVS, FCIArb
writes from Omu-Ijebu, Ogun State
August 2026.
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