Fawaz Adebisi
The United Nations has raised the alarm that between 2023-2027, the world would experience its hottest moment ever.
The UN, on Wednesday, raised the alarm, adding that the period would be the warmest five-year period ever recorded.
According to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the world’s temperature are exceeding the more ambitious target, which was set out in the Paris climate accords, with a two-thirds chance that one of the next five years will do so.
It added that in history, the hottest eight period years were between 2015 and 2022.
“There is a 98-per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record,” the WMO said.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius above the average temperatures recorded between 1850 and 1900, with an aim of achieving 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.
As of 2022, the global mean temperature had already risen by 1.15 degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 66 percent probability that annual global surface temperatures will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels at least once between 2023 and 2027, as the projected range for each of those five years is between 1.1 and 1.8 degrees Celsius.
Although this doesn’t imply a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement target, the WMO’s chief, Petteri Taalas, stated that the organization is raising the alarm regarding the increasing frequency of temporary breaches beyond the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.
He stated, “a warming El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”
He further explained that El Niño refers to the significant warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
He added that this weather phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years, as the climate alternates between El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, with neutral conditions in between.
The WMO had recently reported a 60 percent likelihood of El Niño developing by the end of July, increasing to 80 percent by the end of September.
Traditionally, El Niño leads to elevated global temperatures in the year following its development, which, in this cycle, would be 2024.
Despite the cooling influence of La Niña conditions over the past three years, the warmest eight years on record have all occurred from 2015 onwards, with 2016 being the hottest.
The atmosphere currently holds an unprecedented level of greenhouse gases, which trap heat. The three primary greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
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