Millions of dollars went down the drain on Thursday as global bettors failed to predict the emergence of Pope Leo XIV, an unexpected pick in the just-concluded papal conclave.
Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV after his election, was not listed among the favourites on any major betting platforms.
Despite the high odds placed on other prominent candidates, the 68-year-old American cardinal emerged as the new leader of the Catholic Church, leaving gamblers stunned.
On Polymarket, over $21 million worth of bets were placed, with Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, and Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle leading the pack at 27 per cent and 23 per cent odds, respectively. Other top contenders included Matteo Zuppi, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and Peter Erdo.
Similarly, on Kalshi, where bets exceeded $8 million, Parolin topped the odds at 29 per cent, followed by Tagle at 22 per cent and Pizzaballa at 10 per cent.
As 133 cardinals gathered behind closed doors for the election, the odds shifted frequently. Many punters anticipated a big win when white smoke finally rose from the Sistine Chapel chimney on Thursday evening, signalling the election of a new pope.
However, the announcement of Pope Leo XIV—a relatively unknown candidate—upended all projections and wiped out millions in bets. The outcome reinforced the secretive and unpredictable nature of papal conclaves.
Pope Leo XIV’s surprise emergence mirrors that of his predecessor, Pope Francis, who in 2013 beat Cardinal Angelo Scola, then widely tipped as the favourite.
Born in Chicago on September 14, 1955, the new pontiff becomes the 267th pope and the first American to hold the position. He was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in September 2023.
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