Iran-Israel war: Petrol nears N1,000/L in Nigeria, marketers predict further hike

Filling stations across the country have adjusted the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, with a litre sold at almost N1,000 across the country, Daily Trust can report.

This followed the recent increase in the price of crude oil on the global market, triggered by the escalating Israel-Iran hostilities, with marketing advising Nigerians to brace up for further increases unless there is a de-escalation of the current tension.

Daily Trust reports that since the conflict started, there has been severe damage to critical oil infrastructure, triggering a sharp spike in global oil prices.

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Spike in crude prices

As soon as the conflict started, Brent crude increased by 11.71% from $66.45 penultimate Monday to $74.23 after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27.

Also over the penultimate weekend, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $72.98 a barrel, up $4.94, or 7.62%.

Similarly, WTI jumped over 14% to its highest since January 21 at $77.62. WTI climbed 13% to its level a week ago.

Israel and Iranian hostilities have worsened volatilities in the oil and gas sector as investors are on the edge of price instability amidst fear of escalating Middle East conflict.

As of yesterday (Sunday), crude prices have rallied above $77 per barrel, slipping from $79 over the weekend. There are fears of further increases following US President Donald Trump’s decision to strike three nuclear facilities in Iran, even as Iran has vowed retaliation.

Fear of further spike as Iran vows retaliation

Analysts say retaliation from Iran may increase crude prices further.

As the third-largest oil producer in the world, Iran accounts for over 24 percent of the oil in the Middle East and over 10 percent of the global oil.

In a worst case scenario, JP Morgan said it sees oil averaging $60 in 2026, but flagged $120–$130 per barrel as a potential range in the event of worst-case outcomes—namely, military conflict and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil flows.

JP Morgan noted that while such escalations could lead to meaningful supply disruption, particularly if Iran’s 2.1 million bpd of exports are cut off, its base case still assumes diplomacy holds.

While increasing prices of crude means more foreign exchange inflows for Nigeria, its flip side is the rise in the price of PMS at the domestic market, with analysts and marketers warning that Nigerians should brace up for more.

Speaking on the rising oil prices, Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf explained that while the surge in crude oil price would impact on foreign exchange earnings, oil being the biggest forex earner for the country, “Economies around the world [Nigeria inclusive] would witness a surge in the price of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, gas and related products in the near term. This would have far reaching implications for many economies and businesses.”

He said, “This would even be more impactful if output performance improves.  Crude oil price has surged to $75 per barrel, which is about 15% higher than before the outbreak of the Israeli–Iran conflict.

“This development would also positively impact the country’s foreign reserves, ensure better forex liquidity and ultimately the stability of the naira exchange rate.”

Dangote adjusts ex-depot price

Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical Limited, Nigeria’s foremost petroleum refiner, last week adjusted its gantry price to N880 per litre, representing a N55 increase from the previous rate of N825 per litre.

This has raised fears of a fresh price hike by petroleum marketers who have upwardly adjusted pump prices across the country.

For instance, Dangote-affiliated filling stations in Lagos, like MRS, increased their pump price from N885 to N925. Also, AP filling station sells at N910 per litre.

Other filling stations in the state were still displaying old prices despite the increase in the price of fuel.

Daily Trust findings showed that some of them displayed N870 and N875 but were selling at N910 and N925.

Daily Trust observed that motorists were lured by the low prices displayed on the board, but expressed surprise at the point of sale.

“I thought it was N830 that was why I drove in. I didn’t know it was a different price at the point of sale,” a motorist said.

Also, a commercial driver, Aluko Taiwo expressed displeasure over the unstable price of fuel, saying the fluctuating price of fuel does not guarantee a fixed price for transporters.

Taiwo who plies Ogba to Ojota added that the recent increase in fuel prices had caused an increase of transport fare from N300 to N400, saying it is sparking dissatisfaction from the commuters.

“We don’t understand the fluctuation of the fuel prices over and over. It is affecting our business. We have increased fare from N300 to N400 and a lot of passengers are complaining. We know what we are facing,” he said.

Fuel sells for N955 in Abuja

In Abuja, Major independent marketers have increased their fuel price to N955. Our reporter, who visited stations like A. A Rano, Mobil, Eternal and A.Y.M Shaafa in different parts of the city observed that their fuel pumps now read the new price.

But the NIPCO fuel station on Airport Road increased its pump price to N950.

A commercial driver, Abdulahi Ibrahim, said the increase was made on Friday.

“I saw the price increase on the day, so I had to buy less litres of fuel than I wanted to buy because I was not having much money on me. I don’t expect there should be any increase with the drop in price we have been witnessing since Dangote refinery came on stream, but I hope it is for the best since there has not been fuel scarcity for a while now.”

He added that transport fares might increase if the price continues to rise.

On his part, Mahmud Junaid said he heard of the increase after learning Dangote Refinery had increased the price for its marketers.

“I know others, too, will follow suit since they sell lower than the remaining stations in the country. So, when I went to refuel my car on Sunday, I was not surprised by the new price. I believe the reason might be due to the Iran-Israel war. Since the war started over a week ago, we have been hearing of an increase in crude oil price, but the fuel pump price has not changed.”

N960 per litre in Kano

Pump price of Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS) has risen to between N955 and N960 per litre in Kano, a visit to most filling stations in the state has revealed.

While filling stations like AY Maikudi, Aliko Oil and AA Rano are selling at N955, MRS Oil, a station solely selling Dangote refined fuel, is selling at N945.

An MRS filling station located at Wudil Road, Tarauni, has a growing queue of vehicles waiting for their turns to buy fuel. The station was previously selling at N886, making it attractive to motorists.

Fara-fara filling station situated along Maiduguri Road after Hotoro Flyover is selling at N960, with a few commercial vehicles coming to buy.

Oribi, a filling station directly opposite Farafara, is also selling at N960 per litre.

Gates of Most filling stations along the Kano-Maduguri Road, like Audu Manager, AA Rano, and MRS Oil, are closed to the buying motorists.

However, an NNPC retail station was still selling at N910, with motorcycles and commercial tricycles taking turns to buy when our correspondent visited.

A motorcycle rider, Muhammad Sani, told our reporter that the low price attracted him to the station, which he believed does not shortchange people.

Nigerians should brace up for further hike – IPMAN

Speaking with our correspondent yesterday, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, advised Nigerians to brace up for increased prices.

He blamed the current hike on what he called “the sharp rise” in crude oil prices as a result of the ongoing Israel-Iran war.

Ukadike said, “There is a sharp rise in the price of crude, which has gone from $60 to $79 in the international market. It is clear that the price of crude oil in the international market will definitely determine the price of petroleum products locally, and also the price of dollars. So these are the two factors that affect the pump price.”

He stated that Dangote Refinery cannot sell below the market price, even despite the naira-for-crude.

“Dangote would definitely run it in line with the OPEC standard. He is not getting crude oil freely,” he said.

He advised the federal government to discount the PMS product sold in Nigeria to mitigate the impact of the increasing fuel price on Nigerians.

Speaking further, Muda Yusuf added, “An improvement in crude oil price would therefore have a significant impact on government revenue. An improvement in revenue would positively impact fiscal consolidation and hopefully moderate the growth of the fiscal deficit.”

Dr. Dauda Garuba, an oil and gas policy analyst, also shared the sentiment that increasing fuel prices would mean more money for Nigeria.

“The country will make more money from oil exports, but will witness poverty amidst a potential increase in refined products – courtesy of deregulation/liberalisation,” he added.