The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has warned that parts of the country could experience as many as 290 days of rainfall in 2025, alongside prolonged dry spells and erratic seasonal patterns.
In its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction released on Monday, the agency revealed that coastal states such as Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom will record the longest rainy season, spanning between 250 and 290 days.
Southern inland states—Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu—are expected to experience between 200 and 250 days of rainfall, while central states could see 150 to 200 days. Northern states including Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno are projected to have the shortest duration, with between 110 and 150 rainy days.
Below-Normal Season for Some, Extended Rains for Others
NiMet projected a below-normal rainy season in parts of Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa, Kogi, Niger, and Ondo.
In contrast, Lagos and parts of Nasarawa are expected to experience prolonged rainfall, which may extend into mid-December.
Annual rainfall totals are forecast to vary sharply—from as low as 405 mm in the far north to over 3,000 mm in the south.
Specifically, Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Akwa Ibom may receive between 2,700 mm and 3,010 mm of rain, while Sokoto, Katsina, Borno, and Yobe may record less than 685 mm.
While much of the country will experience near-normal rainfall compared to historical averages, above-normal totals are expected in parts of Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos, Abia, Akwa Ibom, and the Federal Capital Territory.
The earliest rainfall is predicted to begin between February 23 and March 10 in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and parts of Delta. In Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and Enugu, rainfall is expected to commence between March and April. Most northern states will likely see rain begin between June and July.
Rainfall cessation will begin as early as October 6 in Sokoto, Zamfara, and Katsina, and could last until December 17 in southern coastal states.
NiMet noted the possibility of early end of rains in parts of Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, and the FCT, while Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, and areas of Cross River and Delta may witness delayed cessation.
Severe Dry Spells and July Drought Warnings
The forecast highlights troubling dry spells across several states. In Oyo, particularly in areas like Saki, Iseyin, and Ogbomosho, a severe dry spell exceeding 15 days is anticipated shortly after the rains begin.
Moderate dry spells—lasting up to 15 days—are expected in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom.
Northern states may face more intense dry conditions, with dry spells of up to 21 days between June and August.
Of particular concern is the Little Dry Season (LDS) forecasted to hit the Southwest in July. Lagos and Oyo are expected to experience a severe LDS lasting between 27 and 40 dry days starting around July 22.
Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Ondo and Kwara may also face moderate LDS impacts.
With the 2025 rainfall outlook pointing to a mix of heavy rains, early and late seasonal transitions, and extended dry spells, NiMet has urged farmers, policymakers, and emergency managers to prepare proactively to mitigate potential agricultural losses, flooding, and other climate-related risks.
The agency said its predictions are based on a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, which typically causes wide variability in rainfall distribution across the country.
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