The Nigerian Meteorological Agency has warned that Ogun, Oyo, Lagos and 33 other states will experience an abnormal and extended rainy season this year, alongside episodes of heavy rainfall, prolonged dry spells and above-average temperatures across the country.
In its latest Seasonal Climate Prediction, NiMet said most parts of Nigeria would record normal annual rainfall compared to long-term averages, but stressed that rainfall patterns would be uneven, with some states facing excessive downpours and others battling below-normal precipitation.
The agency forecast above-normal rainfall in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom states and the Federal Capital Territory, raising fears of flooding, erosion and destruction of farmlands and infrastructure in vulnerable communities.
However, below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun states, even as the agency warned of severe dry spells exceeding 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun between March and May.
NiMet also predicted moderate dry spells across Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River and Delta states, as well as parts of Kogi and Kwara.
During the June-July-August period, the agency said severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days could occur in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara states.
On the much-anticipated August Break, also known as the Little Dry Season, NiMet said it is likely to begin by late July and be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo states, with between 28 and 40 days of little or no rainfall. Moderate effects are expected in Ondo, parts of Kwara and Edo states.
The agency further projected that both daytime and nighttime temperatures would be warmer than the long-term average across most parts of the country between January and May, heightening concerns over heat stress, crop failure and water scarcity.
NiMet cautioned residents against mistaking early rains in southern Nigeria for the onset of the rainy season.
“Those engaged in rain-fed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities are advised to refer to the predicted onset dates in the publication or consult NiMet for proper guidance,” the agency said.
The forecast comes amid rising concerns over climate variability and its impact on food security, flooding and livelihoods, with experts urging state governments, farmers and emergency agencies to strengthen preparedness and response mechanism
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