By Olufemi Ayannuga
When Africa’s richest man and President of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, declared recently that the moribund Ajaokuta Steel Complex “will not work,” many Nigerians sighed in resignation. Coming from a businessman who has built Africa’s largest refinery against all odds, his verdict carries weight. Yet, should the nation accept his pronouncement as final? Or is there still room for what can be termed a “Tinubu miracle”?
When the Nigerian government conceived Ajaokuta Steel in 1979 under President Shehu Shagari, the vision was clear: to industrialize Nigeria by establishing a robust steel backbone. The steel complex was designed to produce 1.3 million tonnes of liquid steel annually in its first phase, with room for expansion to 5.2 million tonnes. Beyond just steel, Ajaokuta was meant to host an integrated industrial city comprising a Metallurgical Process Plant, an Engineering Complex, power plants, and auxiliary services.
The underlying philosophy was simple: no nation can truly industrialize without steel. From railways to bridges, from automobiles to military hardware, steel is the foundation. Ajaokuta was positioned to transform Nigeria into an industrial hub, reduce dependence on imports, and create hundreds of thousands of jobs directly and indirectly.
More than 45 years later, Ajaokuta remains Nigeria’s most expensive industrial mirage. The project has consumed over $8 billion, yet it has never produced a single tonne of commercial steel. The reasons are well-documented: corruption, mismanagement, poor political will, and conflicting foreign interests.
In the 1980s, agreements with the Soviet contractors faltered due to changing global politics.
In the 1990s, successive military governments lacked the focus to see it through.
In 2003, the Obasanjo administration concessioned Ajaokuta to Global Steel Holdings Limited (GSHL), an Indian firm, but the deal collapsed in 2008 after accusations of asset stripping.
In 2020, the Buhari government signed a deal with Russia’s Tyazhpromexport and earmarked $1.5 billion for revival, but the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war derailed progress.
Meanwhile, the plant’s equipment—most of which was cutting-edge in the 1980s—has become outdated, requiring either massive rehabilitation or complete overhaul.
Dangote’s blunt assessment stems from practical business sense. In his words, “We can keep deceiving ourselves. Ajaokuta will not work.” His point is that global steel technology has advanced far beyond the Soviet-era model upon which Ajaokuta was built. For instance, mini-mills and direct reduced iron (DRI) technologies now make steel production cheaper and more flexible, while Ajaokuta’s blast furnace design is bulky and obsolete.
From Dangote’s perspective, it may be wiser to start afresh with modern plants rather than sink endless funds into resuscitating a dinosaur.
Despite the harsh realities, hope is not entirely lost. Nations like India, China, and Brazil once faced similar skepticism but turned around their steel dreams. India’s Tata Steel was once considered a pipe dream, yet today it stands tall globally. China transformed its steel sector into the world’s largest in less than three decades.
Nigeria can still achieve a revival, but not through business as usual. The question is whether the government is willing to pursue bold reforms, genuine partnerships, and transparent management.
1. Technological Audit and Modernization
Commission an independent technical audit to determine which parts of Ajaokuta are salvageable. Instead of clinging to the outdated blast furnace design, Nigeria can retrofit with modern DRI or electric arc furnace technologies, which are more energy-efficient.
2. Public-Private Partnership (PPP)
The government should resist full concessioning without oversight, as past experiences have shown. Instead, a PPP model where the state retains significant ownership but allows private operators with proven steel experience to manage is crucial.
3. Local Content Integration
Link Ajaokuta to existing national projects: the Abuja-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline can provide gas for power and steelmaking; the Itakpe Iron Ore Mines should feed raw materials. Local automobile assembly plants, rail projects, and defense industries should be tied directly to Ajaokuta’s output.
4. Political Will and Anti-Corruption Safeguards
More than money, Ajaokuta needs political will. Transparent bidding, periodic audits, and parliamentary oversight should prevent the hemorrhaging of funds.
5. International Partnerships with Aligned Interests
Past attempts failed partly because foreign contractors pursued their home countries’ economic interests. Nigeria should court partners whose long-term goals align with our own industrialization drive, not just quick profits.
Dangote may be right in the short term: Ajaokuta in its current form is a relic. But to accept his verdict as Nigeria’s destiny is to abandon a dream that still holds potential. The real issue is not whether Ajaokuta can work, but whether Nigeria has the discipline, vision, and courage to make it work—perhaps in a reimagined form.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu stands at a historic crossroads. His administration has already engaged India’s Jindal Steel Group, which pledged $5 billion in new steel investments. Rather than let Ajaokuta rot while starting afresh, Tinubu can blend both approaches: modernize what is viable in Ajaokuta while building new, state-of-the-art steel plants across the country.
If successful, this would not just revive a dormant asset but also restore faith in Nigeria’s capacity to complete what it starts. It would create jobs, boost GDP, and reduce our scandalous dependence on steel imports.
Alhaji Dangote has given his verdict. The world is watching. But history teaches us that nations are not built by verdicts alone—they are built by miracles forged in sweat, courage, and vision.
President Tinubu now has the opportunity to prove that Ajaokuta’s story is not one of eternal failure, but of national rebirth. If he dares to reimagine and reposition the complex, he can etch his name in history as the leader who turned Nigeria’s greatest white elephant into a steel giant.
Mr. President, the choice is yours. Use the Ajaokuta story to change the perception many have about your managerial skills and your capacity to turn hopeless situations around for the good of Nigeria.
Olufemi Ayannuga
Writing from Abeokuta
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