Power sector: A promise unfulfilled

“Whichever way, by all means necessary, you must have electricity, and you will not pay the estimated bill anymore. A promise made will be a promise kept. If I can’t keep the promise and I come back for a second time, don’t vote for me. That’s the truth. Unless I give you adequate reasons why I couldn’t deliver.”

These were the campaign words of Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of the 2023 presidential election. Two years into his administration, however, many Nigerians continue to grapple with erratic electricity supply and rising energy costs—despite his lofty promises and early reformist signals. And for a sector so closely tied to the country’s industrial ambitions and economic recovery, the wait has come with more frustration than relief.

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Hope flickered early in Tinubu’s presidency with the signing of the Electricity Act 2023, one of the first reform-oriented laws under his administration. The Act removed electricity from the Exclusive Legislative List, placing it on the Concurrent List, and in doing so opened the door for states to generate, transmit and distribute power independently.

It was a bold move aimed at breaking the long-standing monopoly held by the electricity distribution companies (DisCos) in their franchise areas. The law also provided for the unbundling of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), creating room for a new operator—the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO)—to manage grid coordination, while TCN focuses on infrastructure.

Analysts hailed the Act as a turning point. It promised a more competitive market, diversified energy sources, and less reliance on the overstretched national grid. The law encouraged states to enact their own regulatory frameworks and even allowed for off-grid and embedded generation using renewables like solar.

But for all the ambition in the legislation, implementation has been slow. Only a few states have taken concrete steps to establish their own electricity markets, and even then, the real hurdle lies in capital—billions of naira are needed to build infrastructure and attract investors. Without it, the promise of a decentralised electricity market remains largely theoretical.

Grid still in crisis as subsidy cuts add to strain

If 2023 offered legislative reform, 2024 laid bare the fragility of the national grid. It was a rough year for the sector, marked by frequent collapses, ageing infrastructure, and rising incidents of vandalism.

The most notable disruption came when 17 states in the North were thrown into darkness for two weeks following a bandit attack on the Shiroro–Mando transmission line. The backup system meant to supply power to the region also failed, compounding the outage.

In line with its broader economic reform drive, the Tinubu administration has begun winding down electricity subsidies. Government officials argue that subsidies primarily benefit wealthier Nigerians while draining public finances. For 2024 alone, the subsidy bill was projected to hit N2 trillion.

To reduce this burden, the government removed Band A customers—those expected to receive up to 20 hours of power supply daily—from the subsidy structure. These customers now pay full cost-reflective tariffs. But the move has drawn criticism, as many consumers in this band claim they aren’t getting the promised hours of power.

“There has been an increase in Band A cost per unit. But does that reflect the quality of service?” asked Bode Fadipe, CEO of Sage Consulting & Communications. “I don’t know if we have customers getting 18 hours daily, except maybe in highbrow areas like Asokoro and Maitama in Abuja.”

Mounting debt threatens stability

The financial strain in the sector runs deep. Apart from the projected N2 trillion subsidy for 2024, the government is also carrying another N2 trillion in legacy debts. This has put it on a collision course with electricity generation companies (GenCos), who recently threatened to shut down operations over unpaid arrears.

Consumers, meanwhile, are hedging their bets. From homes to small businesses, most users now have at least one alternative power source—whether solar, generator, or inverter—ready to switch on when the grid inevitably fails. But this comes at a cost.

The government has encouraged investment in renewables, and the Electricity Act has provided the legal backing to support solar and other off-grid solutions. In principle, this opens the door to more resilient and decentralised energy systems. In practice, uptake remains slow—mainly due to high costs.

“Renewable energy is not going to grow at the pace we need because of cost,” Fadipe said. “To install solar at home, you need the right batteries, panels, and accessories. That’s expensive. In this economy, where people are struggling with school fees, rent and food, who can afford that kind of upfront cost?”

He said the government must go beyond policy and push for affordable financing options—single-digit interest loans and support from development banks—if it wants real growth in the renewable sector.

Fadipe also pointed out that even the Presidential Villa had to turn to solar to cut costs from the unreliable public supply. Reports suggest the switch cost over N10 billion. “If that’s what it takes for the Villa, how can an average Nigerian afford to go green?” he asked.

A promise hanging in the balance

Despite new legal powers, most states are yet to take full advantage of the Electricity Act. While some players in the industry, like Kano DisCo, are working with potential investors, many state governments are yet to develop a clear roadmap for entering the generation and distribution space.

Adetayo Adegbenle, founder of Power Up Nigeria, said the country’s electricity sector continues to suffer from persistent challenges that clear policy directions could have addressed. According to him, power generation has not witnessed any significant improvement, largely because the economy does not provide adequate guarantees for return on investment.

On sectoral liquidity, he acknowledged efforts by regulators to address funding shortfalls, such as the removal of subsidies for Band A customers, although he warned that such measures have their drawbacks.

“Even now, no one can clearly state what is happening with the Presidential Metering Initiative (PMI); all its timelines have been missed,” he said.

Overall, Adegbenle said the Tinubu administration has yet to redirect the power sector meaningfully or achieve the transformation it promised.

Two years into the Tinubu administration, experts noted that the power sector remains one of the clearest examples of how policy ambition and real-world implementation can diverge. The Electricity Act set the stage for transformation, but execution has been patchy, and the sector remains bogged down by debts, unreliable supply, and inadequate investment.

For Nigerians, daily life continues to be shaped by power shortages, rising tariffs, and a growing sense that reforms—however promising on paper—have yet to deliver meaningful results.

Tinubu’s words from the campaign trail still echo, but for now, electricity remains a promise half-kept.