Security: Issues begging for attention

In his first two years in office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has shown a sustained commitment to addressing Nigeria’s complex security challenges—establishing new security structures and increasing budgetary allocations to the sector, among other measures. Yet, amid a rising tide of violent crimes nationwide, the country has yet to reach a level of security that supports its broader development goals. This article assesses the president’s mid-term performance on security and outlines strategies to translate his commitments into concrete improvements in national security and public safety.

Inaugurated on May 29, 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu inherited a nation grappling with a multifaceted and deeply entrenched security crisis. In the years preceding his tenure, Nigeria witnessed escalating insecurity that posed serious threats to national stability, governance, and socio-economic development. Terrorism—primarily orchestrated by Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihād (JAS) and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)—continued to ravage the Northeast. Banditry and kidnapping for ransom had become rampant, particularly in the northwestern and north-central states of Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, and Niger.

Several Northcentral states also experienced an intensification of the protracted farmer-herder conflicts, compounded by rising banditry. Separatist agitations led by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and its armed wing, the Eastern Security Network—as well as opportunistic violence by so-called “unknown gunmen”—further fuelled instability in the Southeast. Meanwhile, urban centres such as Abuja, Lagos, and Calabar reported high incidences of violent crime.

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This complex and deteriorating security landscape formed the critical backdrop against which the Tinubu administration’s “Renewed Hope Agenda” would be tested. The agenda promised a decisive overhaul. At mid-term, however, the question remains: has this strategy brought real and sustained improvements?

Security sector governance and reform

The administration significantly increased the national defence allocation from N1.25 trillion in 2023 to N3.25 trillion in 2024—a 160% rise—and further to N4.91 trillion in 2025. This was aimed at addressing chronic underfunding and outdated equipment. These allocations were bolstered by harmonised salary increases for security personnel and expanded annual recruitment drives, such as increasing the Nigeria Police recruitment quota from 10,000 to 30,000.

Beyond funding and personnel, the administration has focused on structural reform and improved coordination. Efforts have been made to foster inter-agency cooperation among the military, State Security Service, police, and civil defence corps, with directives issued for intelligence-sharing and harmonised operations. Technology has been embraced to enhance intelligence gathering and operational effectiveness—evidenced by the establishment of a National Digital Forensic Laboratory and the deployment of digital surveillance tools. Discussions around constitutional amendments for state police and the creation of a regulatory body for small arms and light weapons also point to a broader reform agenda.

Nonetheless, the administration’s performance in security sector governance is not without shortcomings. A major concern is the continued lack of clear delineation of strategic, tactical, and operational roles among security sector ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs). There has also been a failure to regularly convene National Security Council meetings, a vital forum for high-level policy coordination and strategic decision-making. Compounding these issues is the non-review of key national security instruments—including the National Defence Policy, National Security Strategy, National Counter-Terrorism Strategy, and the Policy Framework for Countering Violent Extremism—which remain outdated despite rapidly evolving threats.

Another persistent weakness is the lack of robust accountability mechanisms. While some leadership changes have occurred, there remains no clearly defined or consistently applied process for holding security leaders accountable for operational failures or security lapses. This accountability gap raises questions about the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of the reforms under way.

Border management

President Tinubu’s administration has made significant strides in enhancing border security by leveraging technology and inter-agency collaboration. A notable achievement is the e-border surveillance system launched on December 10, 2024, at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Technology Innovation Complex. This system, operated by 250 highly trained personnel from the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) on 24-hour shifts, integrates data from INTERPOL and various Nigerian security agencies to identify and intercept persons of interest, aiming to combat irregular migration. Furthermore, the administration has increased national defence allocations and invested in advanced equipment, including drones, to improve border mapping and operational efficiency.

Despite these efforts, Nigeria’s borders remain highly porous, with reports indicating over 1,400 illegal routes into the country, vastly outnumbering the 84 approved border control posts along Nigeria’s 4,047 km land border. This permeability continues to facilitate criminal activities like banditry, terrorism, and smuggling. While the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has reported a significant surge in revenue, partly attributed to technological deployment and tightened enforcement, the scale of illicit activities highlights the need for sustained and comprehensive measures to secure the nation’s frontiers and address the deeply entrenched issues of corruption and logistical challenges. In early May 2025, the Minister of Defence and the Chief of Army Staff attributed the resurgence of terror attacks in mainly the northeast of Nigeria to porous borders.

Cybersecurity

Recognising the growing digital threats to national security, the Tinubu administration has placed increasing emphasis on cybersecurity. At mid-term, its approach reflects a mix of legislative

reform, institutional strengthening, and strategic action—though challenges remain significant.

A central achievement is the enactment of the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc.) Act (Amendment) 2024, which updated the 2015 law. The amendment introduces stiffer penalties, clarifies legal definitions, and facilitates international cooperation in cybercrime investigations. It also supports the operations of the newly established National Cyber Security Council.

The Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) has led efforts to coordinate national cybersecurity strategy, including the implementation of the National Cybersecurity Policy and Strategy (NCPS). Regulatory agencies such as the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) are also playing critical roles. The National Digital Forensic Laboratory, operational under this framework, has enhanced the capacity of law enforcement and the military to investigate and prosecute cybercrimes.

Capacity building has been a key focus, with training programmes rolled out for cybersecurity professionals and law enforcement personnel in areas such as digital forensics and incident response. Public awareness campaigns have also been launched to improve digital hygiene and reduce vulnerability among internet users. Notably, the administration has taken firm action against cyber-enabled financial crimes. A prominent case involved cryptocurrency platform Binance, whose operations reportedly facilitated economic sabotage worth billions and led to the freezing of several accounts linked to terrorism and separatist networks.

Despite these gains, Nigeria’s cybersecurity environment remains volatile. In 2024 alone, reported cases of cyber-related financial fraud surged by 45%, resulting in estimated losses exceeding N150 billion (about $180 million). High-profile incidents included the defacement of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website and a breach at fintech giant Flutterwave, which led to unauthorised transfers totalling roughly N11 billion (around $7 million).

Digital illiteracy among large segments of the population continues to make individuals easy targets for cybercriminals. Furthermore, law enforcement agencies face resource and skill gaps that undermine the effective enforcement of existing cybersecurity laws. Civil society organisations have also voiced concern over the potential misuse of the Cybercrime Act, especially its application against journalists and activists—raising broader questions about the balance between national security and civil liberties.

The dynamic nature of cyber threats demands continuous policy adaptation and sustained investment. Meeting this challenge will require not just infrastructure and legislation, but also institutional resilience and public trust.

Has there been a reduction in terrorism, banditry, and kidnappings?

Recent remarks by the Ministers of Defence, the National Security Adviser, and the Chief of Defence Staff in April and May 2025 suggest that over 3,496 insurgents were reportedly killed, and more than 121,000 terrorists and their family members surrendered in the Northeast. Nationwide, security agencies claim to have arrested over 30,000 suspects. From January 1 to December 31, 2024, Nigerian military forces reported killing 10,937 terrorists, capturing 12,538 suspects, and rescuing 7,063 hostages.

Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, in a comparative analysis of the last two years of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration and the current Tinubu administration, reported 18,572 deaths, 9,795 abductions, and 8,483 violent incidents between July 2021 and May 2023. In comparison, from June 2023 to April 2025, the firm recorded 17,617 fatalities, 16,462 abductions, and 15,437 violent incidents. This indicates that while the Tinubu administration has reduced fatalities, incidents of abduction and violent attacks have increased.

The National Bureau of Statistics’ Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey (CESPS) for 2024 painted a similarly alarming picture. Published on 17 December 2024, the report offered a granular—albeit contested—view of crime experiences and public perceptions of safety between May 2023 and April 2024. It underscored Nigeria’s pervasive insecurity, the economic cost of criminality, and the deepening erosion of public trust in law enforcement.

One of the most disturbing findings in CESPS 2024 was the reported rise in kidnappings and ransom payments. The survey estimated 2.2 million kidnapping incidents during the period, with total ransoms paid amounting to approximately N2.2 trillion. This translates to an average ransom of N2.67 million per incident, with 65% of affected households reportedly paying to secure the release of loved ones. If accurate, these figures reveal a country where kidnapping has become a systemic, economically devastating industry.

The discrepancies between operational claims and on-the-ground realities underscore a troubling truth: despite tactical gains, a substantial and sustained reduction in overall insecurity remains elusive.

Effort to decentralise security

Two policy proposals central to the Tinubu administration’s security reform agenda—the creation of state police and the implementation of local government autonomy—remain unrealised. Both would significantly decentralise Nigeria’s highly centralised security framework.

In the absence of such reforms, insecurity continues to deteriorate in many states. In April 2025, governors from both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) publicly expressed grave concerns over the worsening security situation. Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State (APC) lamented the resurgence of insurgent attacks, stating that the state was “losing ground” to daily kidnappings and violence. Similarly, Governor Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau State (PDP) described the violence in his state as a “systematic and premeditated campaign” to displace communities. He issued a public apology to affected families, admitting government failure to protect lives.

Governor Hyacinth Alia of Benue State (APC) echoed their concerns, declaring that his state was “under relentless siege” from terrorists and armed militias, many of whom he claimed were non-Nigerians. He pleaded for emergency federal support to repel these invaders. The bipartisan consensus among governors—regardless of political affiliation—illustrates the national scope and severity of the security crisis.

In a recent interview with Channels Television, Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser to the President on Policy Communication, criticised state governors for what he described as a lack of commitment to addressing security challenges. Bwala alleged that despite receiving monthly security votes ranging from N1 billion to N3 billion, some governors allocated as little as N20 million to key federal security agencies such as the police, SSS, and the army for operational costs. He argued that directing even N1 billion of these funds towards purchasing drones and surveillance equipment could transform security operations at the state level.

Bwala’s critique aligns with President Tinubu’s repeated calls for greater state-level collaboration. The president has emphasised that national security is a shared responsibility, urging governors to work closely with security chiefs and local communities. He has directed federal security agencies to deepen engagement with state and grassroots leaders, noting that “some of these problems are community-related” and that sub-national actors must play a more proactive role in promoting peace and stability.

On 12 May 2025, in a coordinated initiative with state governors, President Tinubu ordered the recruitment of over 129,000 armed operatives to protect Nigeria’s 1,129 forest reserves. Each state is expected to recruit between 2,000 and 5,000 forest guards, who will be supervised by the Office of the National Security Adviser and the Ministry of Environment. If effectively implemented, this initiative could begin to reclaim Nigeria’s vast, largely ungoverned forested areas—now strongholds for various non-state armed groups.

Way forward

The path to sustainable national security lies in addressing the underlying drivers of insecurity. Efforts in poverty alleviation, youth employment, and rural development are crucial to reducing the population of those vulnerable to recruitment by violent and criminal groups. Tackling perennial farmer-herder conflicts through structured dialogue and modern land management, combined with support for victims and rehabilitation of surrendered fighters, will help foster peace and social cohesion.

While President Tinubu’s administration has demonstrated a measure of commitment, achieving Nigeria’s national security goals within the remaining tenure requires a recalibrated strategy. This includes transparent governance, decentralised but coordinated security frameworks, fortified borders, adaptive cybersecurity protocols, and urgent action on socio-economic inequalities.

Only through such a holistic and resolute approach can Nigeria shift from aspirational rhetoric to enduring security and national stability.

Dr Kabir Adamu is a security risk management and intelligence expert. He is the founder and CEO of Beacon Security and Intelligence Ltd. He contributed this piece exclusively for this special edition.