Tinubunomics at midterm: Between statistics and suffering

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration marks two years in office with an avalanche of economic reforms bundled into what many have dubbed Tinubunomics, an aggressive cocktail of subsidy removal, currency floating, massive infrastructural rollout, and fiscal restructuring. At the core of Tinubu’s eight-point Renewed Hope Agenda is a bias for economic re-engineering, which has dominated the national conversation from his inaugural “fuel subsidy is gone” declaration to the unveiling of multi-trillion naira infrastructure projects and sweeping tax reforms.

Hope wasn’t just deferred, it was crushed, leaving behind a silent ache in the hearts of the people.

From the day of his inauguration on May 29, 2023, Tinubu left no one in doubt about the direction his government would go.

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Promises came thick and fast, but the streets whispered a different story, one of struggle and silence.

Tinubu’s presidency, unlike any in Nigeria’s recent history, boasts an unprecedented cabinet size, with the creation of novel ministries like Marine and Blue Economy, Livestock Development, and Creative Economy. This has been interpreted both as a strategy for broader policy reach and a political accommodation move.

On the subject of infrastructure, a cascade of highway projects dot the nation’s landscape. From the revitalised Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road, the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, to the Enugu-Onitsha Expressway reconstructed under MTN’s Tax Credit Scheme, Tinubu’s government has put brick and mortar at the fore of its visible wins.

The Sokoto-Badagry Highway, Bodo-Bonny Road with its 13 bridges, and the PPP-backed Benin-Asaba Superhighway stand as emblems of this infrastructural push. The re-awarded Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, with tolling planned for sustainability, adds to a plot of physical development gaining ground.

The legislative arena has also been active, particularly in the energy sector. The Electricity Act (Amendment) Bill signed into law in early 2024 mandates power-generating companies to set aside five per cent of their operational expenditure for host community development.

Meanwhile, the National Assembly is harmonising four major tax reform bills that could fundamentally reshape Nigeria’s revenue framework. These include the Nigeria Tax Bill, Joint Revenue Board Bill, Nigeria Revenue Service Bill, and Nigeria Tax Administration Bill.

On the financing front, three funds totalling N200 billion were launched to support MSMEs and manufacturing, with the Bank of Industry disbursing over N22 billion so far. Simultaneously, the restreaming of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries and the Compressed Natural Gas initiative show a strategic pivot toward energy security and local capacity utilization. In July 2024, the government announced a new minimum wage of N70,000.

On the flip side, much as the economic handlers of the country will want the citizens to laud them the brightest lights often cast the darkest shadows, while reforms shine, hardship deepens in quiet corners.

But beyond the glossy statistics lies a harsher truth. Life for the average Nigerian has become more punishing.

What does a nation do when hope becomes a rumour? When the future feels like a place only the wealthy can afford to visit? In the buzzing markets of Kano, the silence of progress is louder than the noise of campaign slogans. In the crowded homes of Makurdi and the dim classrooms of Yenagoa, parents and pupils alike are learning to adjust dreams to fit the price of rice.

Nigeria today is not just navigating hard times, it is like a vehicle careening downhill without brakes. Noisy, chaotic, and dangerously unpredictable. And through it all, one truth persists. You cannot borrow your way out of broken trust.

It is in these harsh realities that the true measure of governance is tested. Promises mean little when families struggle to put food on the table and young graduates roam the streets without jobs.

Now, midway through Tinubu’s term, Nigerians are asking a different question. Has the promised renewal arrived, or have we simply renamed our struggles?

A midterm report should reflect these lived experiences, not just political spin.

Economic growth has not translated into improved livelihoods. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation hit 24.23 per cent in March 2025, a silent tax that erodes income daily. The World Bank’s April 2025 Poverty and Equity Brief paints an even grimmer picture: poverty among rural dwellers now stands at 75.5 per cent, compared to 41.3 per cent in urban areas. This rural-urban divide speaks to deepening inequality, economic exclusion, and the failure of trickle-down development.

Energy prices have surged. Electricity tariffs and petrol costs have skyrocketed, while the telecommunications tariff hike added more strain. The over 40 per cent devaluation of the naira has pushed basic commodities beyond reach, rendering the N70,000 minimum wage largely symbolic in the face of daily survival battles.

Development economist Dudley Seers once argued that in any country where poverty, unemployment, and inflation are rising, development is a mirage. Nigeria fits this tragic formula. Many citizens now find themselves heavily indebted, skipping meals, defaulting on rent, and enduring unending blackouts and inflation-fuelled anxieties.

It, therefore, behoves President Tinubu to find creative ways of ameliorating the suffering of the Nigerian masses.

Leadership is tested not by slogans or statistics but by the lived reality of its people. Now is the time for urgent, tangible change.

Tinubunomics is a paradox. It promises renewal but delivers hardship. It builds roads, yet leaves the people stranded in their own lives. It reforms taxes, yet taxes the will to survive. At midterm, it is a tale of two Nigerias, one paved in concrete, the other crumbling in hunger. If hope is to be renewed in truth, the second half of this administration must pivot from optics to impact, from GDP to groceries, from policies to people.

Shaakaa can be reached via [email protected]