Daud Olatunji
No fewer than 84 per cent of Nigerians say they are likely to vote in the 2027 general elections, but widespread concerns over insecurity, the credibility of the electoral process and confidence in election dispute resolution could undermine the anticipated turnout.
This was contained in the latest National Voting Intentions Survey 3.0 conducted by Yiaga Africa and unveiled in Abuja on Wednesday.
The survey, conducted in September 2026, sampled 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory.
Of the respondents, 2,066 were interviewed by telephone, while 404 were reached through face-to-face interviews in rural communities.
According to the findings, while 84 per cent of respondents indicated that they were likely to participate in the 2027 elections, only 47 per cent described themselves as “very likely” to vote.
The survey also revealed a significant gap between Nigerians’ willingness to vote and their confidence in the institutions responsible for delivering and adjudicating the elections.
Insecurity emerged as the biggest threat to voter participation, with 82 per cent of respondents expressing concern that violence and insecurity could affect the 2027 elections.
Similarly, 61 per cent said fear of violence could prevent them from going to the polling stations.
The findings also showed a sharp decline in confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission, with trust in the electoral umpire dropping from 45 per cent in the first two rounds of the survey to 34 per cent in the latest edition.
Confidence in the technology deployed in the electoral process was somewhat higher, with 49 per cent of respondents expressing trust in the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the IReV result transmission platform.
However, only 34 per cent said they had confidence in INEC itself.
The judiciary also recorded a worrying confidence deficit, as 63 per cent of respondents said they had little or no confidence that electoral disputes would be resolved fairly.
The concern was particularly pronounced in the South-South, where the figure rose to 81 per cent.
The survey’s findings are coming against the backdrop of Nigeria’s historically low voter turnout, with only 27 per cent of registered voters reportedly participating in the 2023 general elections.
Speaking on the report, Yiaga Africa’s Chairman, Board of Trustees, Hussaini Abdu, said the survey was not intended to pass judgment on voters or the forthcoming elections but to identify gaps requiring urgent intervention.
He described the findings as a wake-up call to political parties, government institutions, civil society organisations and other stakeholders ahead of the 2027 elections.
“It’s a wake-up call to Nigerians and to civil society organisations, and everyone that is involved in elections, that this election is very important to the country. It’s important for democracy,” Abdu said.
He urged political parties to take responsibility for mobilising voters, warning against a repeat of the low turnout witnessed in 2023.
According to him, it is unhealthy for democracy when millions of registered voters stay away from elections, leaving a relatively small proportion of the electorate to determine who governs the country.
Abdu said political parties had a responsibility to mobilise their members and other voters to participate in the electoral process.
He argued that although Nigeria’s electoral system operates on the principle of majority rule, low turnout could undermine the democratic legitimacy of elected leaders.
‘Nigerians Want To Vote, But Fear, Distrust, Money Stand In The Way’
Yiaga Africa’s Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said the survey had challenged the popular narrative that Nigerians were simply apathetic towards elections.
According to her, Nigerians still want to participate, but several factors prevent them from translating that willingness into actual votes.
Bichi identified fear, distrust and money as major obstacles between voters and the ballot box.
She described Nigeria’s low voter turnout as a “conversion problem, not an apathy problem,” arguing that institutions and political actors must address the factors discouraging citizens from voting.
She said the limited time before the presidential election made urgent intervention necessary.
The presidential election is scheduled for January 16, 2027, according to the survey presentation.
The Executive Director of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa, Ezenwa Nwagwu, welcomed the 84 per cent voter-intention figure but cautioned INEC against making promises it may struggle to fulfil.
Nwagwu urged the electoral commission to concentrate on delivering credible elections rather than making sweeping assurances.
He said the complexity of the electoral process and the possibility of deliberate attempts to undermine elections required INEC to be realistic in its public communication.
His advice was that the commission should “under-promise and then overperform” in order to build and sustain public confidence.
He also urged INEC to reassure Nigerians about its preparations without releasing sensitive operational details that could expose the electoral process to unnecessary risks.
Meanwhile, Yiaga Africa has called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a national, threat-based election security plan by November 2026.
The organisation wants the plan developed through the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security, with priority attention given to the North-East, North-West and North-Central regions.
Yiaga also called for a shift in election security strategy from merely protecting electoral materials to protecting voters.
The organisation urged INEC to make a binding public commitment to the real-time uploading of results from all polling units to the IReV platform.
It further demanded that the commission publish and test its results management protocol, particularly in the South-East and South-South, where concerns over the credibility and management of election results remain significant.
The electoral body was also urged to strengthen transparency around result management in order to rebuild public confidence.
On the judicial front, Yiaga Africa called for the speedy resolution of pre-election disputes over candidates before ballot papers are printed.
It also urged the judiciary to publish clear timelines for the determination of election petitions.
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