Nigeria’s security landscape deteriorated sharply in May 2026, with no fewer than 842 people killed and 279 others abducted in 156 violent incidents recorded across the country, according to fresh data from the Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database.
The figures point to a troubling escalation in insecurity, with violent incidents rising by 51.5 per cent, fatalities increasing by 90.1 per cent, and kidnappings climbing by 19.7 per cent compared to the same period in 2025—underscoring what analysts describe as a deepening national security emergency.
The data, which has sparked renewed concern among policy experts and peacebuilding practitioners, also comes amid mounting questions over the effectiveness of ongoing interventions aimed at stabilising fragile communities.
Beyond the raw numbers, the latest report highlights a widening gap between peacebuilding investments and measurable outcomes in Nigeria’s conflict-prone regions. Despite increased spending by government agencies, development partners and civil society groups, insecurity indicators continue to trend upward.
Security analysts linked to the research platform, Nextier, argue that the problem may not be a lack of intervention, but rather the absence of reliable frameworks to properly evaluate what works—and what fails—in peacebuilding efforts.
In a policy paper titled “The Travails of Measuring Peacebuilding in Fragile Contexts,” development practitioner Jamilu Musa and Dr. Chukwuma Okoli, Visiting Lead for Research and Policy at Nextier and a lecturer in Political Science at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, noted that weak impact assessment systems continue to undermine conflict-response strategies.
The hidden problem in peacebuilding
According to the experts, while dialogue sessions, community sensitisation programmes and peace campaigns remain widespread, they often fail to translate into measurable reductions in violence or improved trust among communities.
They argued that peacebuilding success is frequently overstated because stakeholders lack tools to assess intangible outcomes such as social cohesion, resilience, and public confidence in institutions.
“Peace is not static; it is a work in progress involving both reducing conflict and increasing development,” the analysts stated, stressing that current evaluation methods are insufficient for fragile environments.
The researchers also warned that peacebuilding programmes are increasingly threatened by shrinking international funding, as donor priorities shift toward competing global crises.
They cited the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating tensions in the Middle East as key factors redirecting global attention and resources away from fragile states.
They also pointed to economic policy shifts in major donor countries, including protectionist approaches associated with United States President Donald Trump’s economic nationalism, as further constraining funding flows
One of the central challenges identified in the study is the difficulty of quantifying peace itself. Unlike infrastructure or economic projects, peacebuilding relies heavily on intangible indicators such as trust, perception of safety, and social relationships.
Other obstacles include weak baseline data, attribution bias, insecurity in conflict zones, short donor funding cycles, and rapidly evolving violence patterns that make long-term assessment difficult.
To address these gaps, the experts recommended a more structured and evidence-driven approach to peacebuilding evaluation built around four core indicators: conflict dynamics, social cohesion, governance and inclusion, and resilience.
Conflict dynamics focus on tracking violence trends such as killings, kidnappings and communal clashes—patterns that remain starkly visible in Nigeria’s May data.
Social cohesion examines trust and cooperation within and between communities, while governance and inclusion measure public confidence in institutions and participation of women, youths and vulnerable groups in decision-making.
Resilience, meanwhile, assesses how effectively communities can prevent disputes from escalating into full-blown violence.
The experts further urged federal and state authorities to institutionalise standardised peace measurement systems that can consistently track security outcomes across regions.
They also called for stronger collaboration between security agencies, humanitarian actors, development partners and peacebuilding organisations to ensure better data sharing and reduce duplication of efforts.
In addition, they recommended modern evaluation tools such as outcome harvesting, perception surveys, social network analysis, participatory monitoring and mixed-method assessments to better capture real-time conflict dynamics.
With hundreds killed and kidnapped in just one month, the latest data paints a stark picture of a country still grappling with entrenched insecurity.
But beyond the statistics lies a deeper concern raised by experts: without reliable measurement systems, Nigeria may continue to invest heavily in peacebuilding without fully understanding whether it is making any real difference on the ground.
'
'Do you want to share a story with us? Do you want to advertise with us? Do you need publicity for a product, service, or event? Contact us on WhatsApp +2348183319097 Email: platformtimes@gmail.com
We are committed to impactful investigative journalism for human interest and social justice. Your donation will help us tell more stories. Kindly donate any amount HERE
