Fareedah Ogundairo
Nigeria has witnessed a staggering 542.9 per cent increase in breast cancer cases over the past three decades, with 53,500 new diagnoses recorded in 2023 alone, a new global study has revealed.
The findings, published in The Lancet and drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study, underscore a deepening cancer crisis across Africa, where several countries now rank among those with the fastest-growing breast cancer burdens worldwide.
The comprehensive analysis, which examined data from cancer registries, vital registration systems and interviews with relatives of deceased patients across 204 countries and territories, also projects a sharp rise in cases and deaths globally by 2050.
According to the study, Nigeria recorded 53,500 new breast cancer cases in 2023 — representing a 542.9 per cent surge compared to 1990.
The age-standardised incidence rate climbed to 72.1 per 100,000 population, reflecting a 108.8 per cent increase over the same period.
Mortality figures were equally troubling. Breast cancer deaths rose to 26,200 in 2023 — a 408.3 per cent jump since 1990. The age-standardised death rate reached 38.7 per 100,000, marking a 73.5 per cent rise.
Health experts say the figures highlight systemic gaps in Nigeria’s healthcare system, including late diagnosis, inadequate screening programmes, weak treatment infrastructure and heavy out-of-pocket costs borne by patients.
Africa Tops Global Rise
The study showed that African countries are experiencing some of the fastest growth rates globally.
Equatorial Guinea recorded the highest increase in new cases at 312 per cent between 1990 and 2023, alongside a 212 per cent rise in deaths.
Other countries with sharp increases in new cases include Ethiopia (207 per cent), Egypt (189 per cent), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (160 per cent), and Mauritania (141 per cent).
Uganda, Mali and Liberia also posted triple-digit increases, underscoring what researchers describe as an urgent continental health emergency.
Globally, breast cancer remains the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women. An estimated 2.3 million new cases were recorded in 2023, with 73 per cent occurring in high- and upper-middle-income countries.
However, the burden is shifting.
The study projects that annual global breast cancer deaths will increase by 44 per cent — from 764,000 in 2023 to nearly 1.4 million by 2050 — with the majority of these deaths expected in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
New cases worldwide are forecast to rise from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million in 2050.
Researchers noted that while older women (55 years and above) accounted for three times as many new diagnoses as women aged 20–54 in 2023, incidence rates have been rising steadily among younger women since 1990.
Lifestyle Risks Under Spotlight
The study attributed 28 per cent of the global breast cancer burden to six modifiable risk factors, including smoking, high blood sugar, obesity, alcohol consumption, low physical activity and high red meat intake.
High red meat consumption alone accounted for nearly 11 per cent of healthy life years lost globally due to breast cancer, while alcohol use and physical inactivity each contributed about two per cent.
Experts say preventive strategies such as maintaining a healthy weight, engaging in regular physical activity, reducing red meat intake and avoiding tobacco could significantly reduce the risk.
The study’s lead author called for urgent, coordinated global action to strengthen health systems, expand early diagnosis programmes and ensure universal health coverage includes affordable breast cancer treatment.
For Nigeria and other low-income countries, the message is clear: without bold policy reforms, improved screening access and reduced treatment costs, the rising tide of breast cancer could overwhelm already fragile health systems in the decades ahead.
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