…1.13m Stayed Away In 2022 As Turnout Crashed From 53% In 2014 To 42% In 2022
Mujeeb Akindoyin
Voter apathy in Osun State has deepened over the years, with official election figures showing that the number of registered voters has continued to rise while the proportion of citizens actually participating in governorship elections has steadily declined.
An analysis of voter registration and votes cast in the state’s governorship elections between 2007 and 2022 shows that turnout, after recording a modest improvement in 2014, fell sharply in 2018 and declined further in 2022.
The trend has become more striking ahead of the 2026 governorship election, as the number of registered voters has risen to 2,339,233, according to figures for the 2026 electoral cycle.
However, while the electorate has expanded by 383,576 voters from the 1,955,657 registered in 2022, 432,843 registered voters had yet to collect their Permanent Voter Cards, leaving 1,906,390 PVCs collected ahead of the election.
The figures highlight a persistent contradiction in Osun’s electoral participation: more people are registering to vote, but a shrinking proportion of the electorate has been turning up to cast ballots.
From 51% turnout to 42%
In 2007, Osun had 1,297,297 registered voters, while 667,391 votes were cast.
This meant that 629,906 registered voters did not vote, representing a turnout of approximately 51.4 per cent.
Although more than half of the registered electorate participated, nearly half of those registered stayed away from the election.
By 2014, the number of registered voters had increased to 1,411,373, while votes cast rose to 750,021.
The increase in ballots cast, however, did not translate into a significant improvement in overall participation.
A total of 661,352 registered voters did not vote, while turnout stood at approximately 53.1 per cent.
The situation changed significantly in 2018.
With registered voters increasing to 1,678,985, only 769,495 votes were cast.
Consequently, 909,490 registered voters stayed away, pushing the number of non-participants above 900,000 for the first time in the period under review.
Turnout consequently fell to about 45.8 per cent.
The decline became even more pronounced in 2022.
Osun recorded 1,955,657 registered voters, but only 823,124 votes were cast.
This left 1,132,533 registered voters who did not participate in the election.
Turnout consequently fell to approximately 42.1 per cent, meaning that fewer than half of the registered electorate participated in the governorship election.
Data analysis platform Dataphyte similarly put the turnout at about 45.74 per cent in 2018 and 42.09 per cent in 2022, describing the 2022 figure as the lowest turnout recorded in the state’s governorship elections.
The widening participation gap
The figures reveal a striking paradox.
Between 2007 and 2022, Osun’s registered electorate increased from 1,297,297 to 1,955,657, representing an increase of more than 658,000 registered voters.
Yet, over the same period, the number of registered voters who did not vote increased from 629,906 to 1,132,533.
That represents an increase of more than 502,000 non-participants.
In percentage terms, turnout dropped by more than nine percentage points between 2007 and 2022.
The development suggests that the major challenge confronting electoral participation in Osun is no longer simply getting citizens to register.
It is getting registered voters to collect their PVCs, go to polling units and actually vote.
2026: Bigger electorate, persistent participation challenge
The 2026 election presents an even bigger test.
Osun now has 2,339,233 registered voters, compared with 1,955,657 in 2022.
That represents an increase of 383,576 voters, or approximately 19.6 per cent, in four years.
But the latest PVC figures show that 432,843 registered voters had not collected their cards, representing about 18.5 per cent of the state’s registered electorate.
A total of 1,906,390 PVCs had been collected, representing about 81.5 per cent of registered voters.
While PVC collection does not necessarily determine how many people will eventually vote, the figures provide another indication of the participation challenge facing the state.
With more than 400,000 registered voters without collected PVCs, the 2026 election begins with a substantial portion of the registered electorate not yet positioned to vote.
And even among those who have collected their PVCs, historical turnout suggests that collection alone does not guarantee participation.
Registration has not translated into voting
The development raises questions about why a growing number of citizens register but subsequently stay away from elections.
Possible factors include distrust in the electoral process, political disappointment, insecurity, logistics, perceived lack of credible choices, vote-buying concerns and the belief among some citizens that their votes will not produce meaningful change.
Whatever the individual reasons, the statistics point to one unmistakable pattern: Osun’s voter register is expanding faster than actual electoral participation.
Technology has not ended voter apathy
The decline has continued despite several reforms introduced by the Independent National Electoral Commission to improve the electoral process.
The introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the electronic transmission of polling-unit results through the IReV platform was aimed at strengthening transparency and public confidence in elections.
The systems were deployed during the 2022 Ekiti and Osun governorship elections.
INEC has also repeatedly urged eligible voters to collect their PVCs and participate in elections.
However, the long-term figures suggest that electoral technology and voter registration alone have not solved the problem of voter apathy.
A warning for democracy
The Osun figures tell a story that goes beyond one governorship election.
In 2007, about 51.4 per cent of registered voters participated.
The figure improved slightly to 53.1 per cent in 2014, before falling to approximately 45.8 per cent in 2018 and 42.1 per cent in 2022.
Meanwhile, the registered electorate has grown from 1.29 million in 2007 to 2.34 million in 2026.
The number of registered voters has therefore increased by more than one million in 19 years, but the historical participation rate has moved in the opposite direction.
For the 2026 election, the central question is therefore not simply how many people are registered.
It is how many will actually turn up to vote.
If the 2022 pattern is repeated, Osun could once again witness a situation in which the winner of the governorship election is determined by a relatively small proportion of the state’s registered electorate.
The challenge for political parties, candidates, INEC, civil society organisations and other stakeholders is consequently bigger than voter registration.
It is to restore citizens’ confidence in the ballot and persuade millions of registered voters that their participation matters.
For a state with 2,339,233 registered voters, including 432,843 who had not collected their PVCs, the 2026 governorship election is not merely another electoral contest.
It is also a crucial test of whether Osun can reverse its troubling trajectory of declining voter participation.
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